CISAC, Paris – 4th December 2024 – The first ever global study measuring the economic impact of AI in the music and audiovisual sectors calculates that Generative AI will enrich tech companies while substantially jeopardising the income of human creators in the next five years.
This is one of the key findings of the report, commissioned by CISAC (International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers, representing over five million creators), and conducted by PMP Strategy.
While the revenues of Gen AI providers will see dramatic growth over the next five years, creators risk losing a large share of their current income due to AI’s substitutional impact on human-made works.
Despite providing the creative fuel of the “Gen AI” content market, music and audiovisual creators will see respectively 24% and 21% of their revenues at risk by 2028. This amounts to a cumulative loss of €22 billion (AU$35 billion) over the five-year period (€10 billion/$AU$16 billion in music; €12 billion/$AU19 billion in audiovisual).
The study finds that the market for music and AV content generated by AI will increase exponentially in the next five years, growing from around €3 billion (AUD$4.8 billion) now to €64 billion (AU$103 billion) in 2028.
The economic study assesses that, as a result of this exponential growth in the market for music and audiovisual content, the future revenues of Gen AI providers will rise to annual revenues of €4 billion (AU$6.5 billion) in music (up from €0.1 billion/$AU0.16 billion in 2023) and €5 billion (AU$8 billion) in audiovisual (up from €0.2 billion/AU$0.3 billion) by 2028. These are revenues derived directly from the unlicensed reproduction of creators’ works, representing a transfer of economic value from creators to AI companies.
In the music sector, the streaming and music library markets will be strongly impacted by AI. By 2028, Gen AI music is projected to account for approximately 20% of traditional music streaming platforms’ revenues, and around 60% of music libraries’ revenues.
The projected revenue loss will also be substantial for audiovisual creators. Translators and adaptors for dubbing and subtitling will experience the strongest impact, with 56% of their revenue at risk, while screenwriters and directors could see their revenues cannibalised by 15 to 20%.
The study’s key takeaway
The study concludes: “In an unchanged regulatory framework, creators will actually suffer losses on two fronts: the loss of revenues due to the unauthorised use of their works by Gen AI models without remuneration; and replacement of their traditional revenue streams due to the substitution effect of AI-generated outputs, competing against human-made works.”
CISAC President Björn Ulvaeus has welcomed the study as a guideline to policy makers in legislative debates around the world. “For creators of all kinds, from songwriters to film directors, screenwriters to film composers, AI has the power to unlock new and exciting opportunities – but we have to accept that, if badly regulated, generative AI also has the power to cause great damage to human creators, to their careers and livelihoods. Which of these two scenarios will be the outcome? This will be determined in large part by the choices made policy makers, in legislative reviews that are going on across the world right now. It’s critical that we get these regulations right, protect creators’ rights and help develop an AI environment that safeguards human creativity and culture.
“In Australia, the new Senate Select Committee on AI report is encouraging and promising. Australia and New Zealand have now a unique opportunity to lead the world in shaping policies that safeguard creators in the face of Generative AI. These two territories have long been champions of cultural innovation, and with the groundbreaking APRA AMCOS AI and Music report, they’ve demonstrated the foresight and commitment needed to address this global challenge. By setting a gold standard in AI policy, one that protects creators’ rights while fostering responsible and innovative technological development, Australia and New Zealand can ensure that AI serves as a tool to enhance human creativity rather than replace it. The world is watching, and the decisions made will resonate far beyond these shores.”
APRA AMCOS CEO, Dean Ormston, said: “This report lays bare the urgent need for action from governments around the world and echoes the findings of the landmark report in AI and Music that APRA AMCOS released in August. One stark example from this report is that the risk of lost revenue for music creators by 2028 globally is 24%, with our report finding this to be a comparative 23% in Australia and New Zealand in the same time period. Generative AI presents both incredible opportunities and significant risks, but right now, it’s creators who stand to lose the most. Our industry thrives on human creativity. Our songwriters, composers and music publishers are the heart of what makes Australian and New Zealand cultural exports so distinctive. We must ensure strong protections for their work, especially Indigenous Cultural and Intellectual Property, so that AI platforms respect protocols and enhances rather than exploits First Nations culture. The Australian and New Zealand Governments need to take the lead and act decisively to protect the livelihoods of creators and the future of our creative industries.”
APRA Chair, Jenny Morris MNZM OAM, added: “Music is the soul of our arts and culture, and it’s heartbreaking to see creators’ work being undervalued and their livelihoods put at risk by unregulated AI. Australia and New Zealand have a unique opportunity to lead by example, ensuring our creators are protected and fairly remunerated. Generative AI should not come at the expense of the people who inspire and create the songs that shape our lives. We must stand up for the voices of our creators, from First Nations artists to emerging and established songwriters, and push governments to act with urgency to safeguard their futures.”
AMCOS Chair, Jaime Gough, said: “The global economic projections in this report are deeply concerning - AI is set to generate billions for tech companies while leaving the creators of music and screen content behind. Songwriters and composers are the backbone of our creative industries, yet their livelihoods are at risk from the unlicensed use of their work. Governments in Australia and New Zealand must step up with regulations that ensure fair remuneration and transparency. This is about protecting the value of human creativity and securing a sustainable future for our nations' great storytellers.”
CISAC Director, General Gadi Oron, said: “CISAC commissioned this study from PMP Strategy to show the enormous value that copyright works bring to Gen AI companies. Its conclusions point to a fundamental flaw that is opening up in the market, with creators’ works being unfairly and unethically appropriated to boost the revenues of Gen AI providers, while leaving the creators themselves out of this growth. At a time of uncertainty and lack of transparency in the marketplace, there is a critical message here for policy makers: they must act urgently to safeguard human culture, creators and creativity. They must put in place a legal and regulatory framework that ensures fair remuneration for creators and demands transparency from AI services. With these principles enshrined in the AI environment, this can be a win-win for creators and the tech industry rather than a threat to our culture and creative sector”.
Background and methodology
The study is the first of its kind to estimate the economic impact of Gen AI on creators of music and audiovisual productions on a global level. It combines qualitative and quantitative research, using Gen AI application case studies to identify areas of greatest impact and converting these into economic estimates on the market penetration of Gen AI services and the revenue losses to creators. It also provides estimates of Generative AI tools and services’ revenues that can serve as basis to calculate remuneration’s schemes for creators.
The historical figures and forecast assumptions are based on market data, relevant benchmark and extensive interviews with industry experts: Collective Management organisations (CMOs), creators, tech players, producers, publishers, DSPs, institutional players representative of the three industries, and public institutions.
Read the full report at cisac.org